1X2 win probability
Modelled home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
Bundesliga · Probability table
Bundesliga predictions, read through the data.
The Bundesliga runs the highest average goals-per-game of Europe's top five leagues, driven by high pressing and vertical transitions — a pace that makes over/under and both-teams-to-score markets especially informative alongside the standard win-draw-away split. Sezi's model accounts for that tempo directly in its expected-goals inputs.
Every fixture gets a calibrated home/draw/away probability from a Poisson-based score model and Monte Carlo simulation, plus most-likely scorelines and goals-market reads. The output is a probability and the data behind it, never a guaranteed result.
Upcoming Bundesliga fixtures
- Fri 11 Sept, 18:30
Union·
Schalke 04Home52%Draw25%Away22% - Sat 12 Sept, 13:30
Dortmund·
SC Paderborn 07Home61%Draw20%Away19% - Sat 12 Sept, 13:30
Augsburg·
LeverkusenHome15%Draw19%Away66% - Sat 12 Sept, 13:30MMainz·
FrankfurtHome40%Draw27%Away33% - Sat 12 Sept, 13:30
Freiburg·
M'gladbachHome58%Draw20%Away21% - Sat 12 Sept, 13:30
Hoffenheim·
StuttgartHome20%Draw20%Away60% - Sat 12 Sept, 16:30
Cologne·
WerderHome37%Draw24%Away39% - Sun 13 Sept, 13:30
Leipzig·HSHamburg SVHome79%Draw12%Away8% - Sun 13 Sept, 15:30
Elversberg·
Bayern MunichHome8%Draw12%Away80% - Fri 18 Sept, 18:30Bayern Munich·UnionHome80%Draw13%Away7%
Recent results
- Frankfurt1–4Augsburg
- HSHamburg SV0–5MainzM
- Schalke 040–0Bayern Munich
- Werder3–1Leipzig
- Hoffenheim2–3Dortmund
What every prediction includes
Expected goals (xG)
Attacking and defensive output modelled per team — the backbone of every score forecast.
Score & goals markets
Most-likely scorelines, both-teams-to-score and over/under, ranked by probability.
Model confidence
Each prediction shows how sure the model is, so you can weigh strong reads against close calls.
Predictions are model-based statistical estimates for analysis, not guarantees. Outcomes can differ from the probabilities shown.
Bundesliga predictions — frequently asked questions.
Are Bundesliga predictions free?
Yes. Every Bundesliga fixture's probability table is free to read, no account required.
How does Sezi model Bundesliga matches?
Sezi combines team form, expected goals (xG) and a Poisson-based score distribution, then runs Monte Carlo simulation to produce a calibrated 1X2, both-teams-to-score and over/under read for each fixture.
Does Sezi predict a winner with certainty?
No. Sezi shows probabilities and the data behind them — a probability reading, not a certainty. The goal is calibration: when the model says 70%, that outcome should land close to 70% of the time.