1X2 win probability
Modelled home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
UEFA Europa League · Probability table
Europa League predictions, read through the data.
Europa League fields blend clubs dropping down from the Champions League with the strongest sides from mid-tier domestic leagues — a mix that produces more variance than a typical domestic fixture. Sezi's model treats that variance as a calibration problem, not something to paper over with a confident-sounding pick.
Every fixture gets a calibrated 1X2 probability — home, draw, away — from a Poisson-based score model and Monte Carlo simulation, plus both-teams-to-score and over/under 2.5 goals reads. Later knockout rounds tend to sharpen the model's read as the sample of current-squad matches grows.
Upcoming Europa League fixtures
No Europa League fixtures in the model's current window. Check back closer to matchday, or see the full predictions hub for other leagues.
Recent results
Ferencvaros4–0Trabzon
Anderlecht3–0Kairat Almaty
- TThun2–2Lech Poznan
- CSCSKA Sofia0–2OFI CreteOC
- AAGF1–3Benfica
What every prediction includes
Expected goals (xG)
Attacking and defensive output modelled per team — the backbone of every score forecast.
Score & goals markets
Most-likely scorelines, both-teams-to-score and over/under, ranked by probability.
Model confidence
Each prediction shows how sure the model is, so you can weigh strong reads against close calls.
Predictions are model-based statistical estimates for analysis, not guarantees. Outcomes can differ from the probabilities shown.
UEFA Europa League predictions — frequently asked questions.
Are the Europa League predictions free?
Yes. Every the Europa League fixture's probability table is free to read, no account required.
How does Sezi model the Europa League matches?
Sezi combines team form, expected goals (xG) and a Poisson-based score distribution, then runs Monte Carlo simulation to produce a calibrated 1X2, both-teams-to-score and over/under read for each fixture.
Does Sezi predict a winner with certainty?
No. Sezi shows probabilities and the data behind them — a probability reading, not a certainty. The goal is calibration: when the model says 70%, that outcome should land close to 70% of the time.