1X2 win probability
Modelled home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
La Liga · Probability table
La Liga predictions, read through the data.
La Liga's identity is built on possession and positional structure — a league where territorial dominance doesn't always convert to goals in a straight line. Sezi's model weighs expected goals (xG) alongside raw shot counts precisely because possession share alone overstates a team's real edge.
Every fixture gets a calibrated 1X2 probability — home, draw and away — from a Poisson-based score model refined with Monte Carlo simulation, plus both-teams-to-score and over/under 2.5 goals. The read is a probability, not a promise: Sezi shows the data behind every number instead of a single confident tip.
Upcoming La Liga fixtures
- Fri 11 Sept, 19:00
Sevilla·
ValenciaHome41%Draw26%Away33% - Sat 12 Sept, 12:00
Racing Santander·
AlavésHome47%Draw24%Away29% - Sat 12 Sept, 14:15
Osasuna·
EspanyolHome53%Draw25%Away22% - Sat 12 Sept, 16:30
Athletic·
ElcheHome63%Draw21%Away16% - Sat 12 Sept, 19:00
Real Madrid·
RayoHome78%Draw13%Away8% - Sun 13 Sept, 12:00
Celta·
MálagaHome59%Draw22%Away20% - Sun 13 Sept, 14:15
Levante·
BarcelonaHome11%Draw13%Away76% - Sun 13 Sept, 16:30
Getafe·DDeportivoHome46%Draw28%Away26% - Sun 13 Sept, 19:00
R. Sociedad·
AtléticoHome31%Draw27%Away42% - Mon 14 Sept, 19:00
Villarreal·
BetisHome54%Draw22%Away25%
Recent results
- Elche2–3R. Sociedad
- Getafe1–1Celta
- Espanyol1–1Sevilla
- Málaga0–0Levante
- Alavés5–2Osasuna
What every prediction includes
Expected goals (xG)
Attacking and defensive output modelled per team — the backbone of every score forecast.
Score & goals markets
Most-likely scorelines, both-teams-to-score and over/under, ranked by probability.
Model confidence
Each prediction shows how sure the model is, so you can weigh strong reads against close calls.
Predictions are model-based statistical estimates for analysis, not guarantees. Outcomes can differ from the probabilities shown.
La Liga predictions — frequently asked questions.
Are La Liga predictions free?
Yes. Every La Liga fixture's probability table is free to read, no account required.
How does Sezi model La Liga matches?
Sezi combines team form, expected goals (xG) and a Poisson-based score distribution, then runs Monte Carlo simulation to produce a calibrated 1X2, both-teams-to-score and over/under read for each fixture.
Does Sezi predict a winner with certainty?
No. Sezi shows probabilities and the data behind them — a probability reading, not a certainty. The goal is calibration: when the model says 70%, that outcome should land close to 70% of the time.