1X2 win probability
Modelled home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
Ligue 1 · Probability table
Ligue 1 predictions, read through the data.
Ligue 1's smaller 18-club format has tightened the table since the restructure, with one dominant side still setting the pace while chasing clubs lean on attacking output to close the gap. Sezi's model tracks that shifting form week to week rather than anchoring to preseason expectations.
Each fixture gets a full 1X2 probability — home, draw, away — from a Poisson-based score model and Monte Carlo simulation, plus both-teams-to-score and over/under 2.5 goals. It's a calibrated read, not a tip: the numbers behind every percentage are shown alongside it.
Upcoming Ligue 1 fixtures
- Fri 11 Sept, 18:45
Rennes·
MarseilleHome53%Draw21%Away26% - Sat 12 Sept, 15:15
Strasbourg·
MonacoHome31%Draw26%Away43% - Sat 12 Sept, 18:45
Auxerre·
NiceHome32%Draw28%Away40% - Sat 12 Sept, 18:45
Le Havre·
AngersHome43%Draw28%Away29% - Sat 12 Sept, 18:45
Lorient·
ToulouseHome41%Draw26%Away33% - Sat 12 Sept, 18:45
Paris·
LyonHome46%Draw23%Away31% - Sun 13 Sept, 13:00
Lille·
TroyesHome75%Draw15%Away9% - Sun 13 Sept, 15:15
Le Mans·
LensHome16%Draw17%Away67% - Sun 13 Sept, 18:45
Brest·
PSGHome16%Draw18%Away66% - Fri 18 Sept, 18:45Monaco·LensHome29%Draw21%Away50%
Recent results
- Marseille2–3Paris
- Angers1–2Rennes
- Troyes2–6Strasbourg
- Nice1–1Le Mans
- Le Havre1–2Brest
What every prediction includes
Expected goals (xG)
Attacking and defensive output modelled per team — the backbone of every score forecast.
Score & goals markets
Most-likely scorelines, both-teams-to-score and over/under, ranked by probability.
Model confidence
Each prediction shows how sure the model is, so you can weigh strong reads against close calls.
Predictions are model-based statistical estimates for analysis, not guarantees. Outcomes can differ from the probabilities shown.
Ligue 1 predictions — frequently asked questions.
Are Ligue 1 predictions free?
Yes. Every Ligue 1 fixture's probability table is free to read, no account required.
How does Sezi model Ligue 1 matches?
Sezi combines team form, expected goals (xG) and a Poisson-based score distribution, then runs Monte Carlo simulation to produce a calibrated 1X2, both-teams-to-score and over/under read for each fixture.
Does Sezi predict a winner with certainty?
No. Sezi shows probabilities and the data behind them — a probability reading, not a certainty. The goal is calibration: when the model says 70%, that outcome should land close to 70% of the time.