1X2 win probability
Modelled home, draw and away probabilities for every fixture — a full read, not a single tip.
Süper Lig · Probability table
Süper Lig predictions, read through the data.
Turkey's Süper Lig runs on rivalry-driven form swings — İstanbul derbies alone can reshape a title race — which makes recency and home advantage two of the most load-bearing inputs in a match model. Sezi weighs both explicitly rather than defaulting to season-long averages.
Every fixture gets a calibrated 1X2 probability — home, draw, away — from a Poisson-based score model and Monte Carlo simulation, plus both-teams-to-score and over/under 2.5 goals reads. Sezi started as a Süper Lig model before expanding to Europe's top leagues, so this is the league its calibration has been tested against longest.
Upcoming Süper Lig fixtures
- Fri 11 Sept, 17:00
Beşiktaş·EBErzurum BBHome68%Draw17%Away15% - Sat 12 Sept, 14:00
Eyüp·
RizeHome44%Draw27%Away29% - Sat 12 Sept, 14:00
Samsun·
Çorum FKHome69%Draw16%Away15% - Sat 12 Sept, 17:00
Alanya·
GöztepeHome38%Draw27%Away35% - Sat 12 Sept, 17:00
Konya·
TrabzonHome26%Draw25%Away49% - Sun 13 Sept, 14:00
Gençlerbirliği·
KasımpaşaHome39%Draw26%Away35% - Sun 13 Sept, 17:00ASAmed SFK·
BaşakşehirHome32%Draw25%Away43% - Sun 13 Sept, 17:00
Galatasaray·
KocaeliHome83%Draw11%Away6% - Mon 14 Sept, 17:00
Gaziantep·
FenerbahçeHome17%Draw20%Away63% - Fri 18 Sept, 17:00Kasımpaşa·KonyaHome41%Draw24%Away35%
Recent results
- Göztepe2–4Gaziantep
- Rize0–1Alanya
- Trabzon5–0Gençlerbirliği
- Kocaeli1–0Samsun
- Kasımpaşa2–2Amed SFKAS
What every prediction includes
Expected goals (xG)
Attacking and defensive output modelled per team — the backbone of every score forecast.
Score & goals markets
Most-likely scorelines, both-teams-to-score and over/under, ranked by probability.
Model confidence
Each prediction shows how sure the model is, so you can weigh strong reads against close calls.
Predictions are model-based statistical estimates for analysis, not guarantees. Outcomes can differ from the probabilities shown.
Süper Lig predictions — frequently asked questions.
Are Süper Lig predictions free?
Yes. Every Süper Lig fixture's probability table is free to read, no account required.
How does Sezi model Süper Lig matches?
Sezi combines team form, expected goals (xG) and a Poisson-based score distribution, then runs Monte Carlo simulation to produce a calibrated 1X2, both-teams-to-score and over/under read for each fixture.
Does Sezi predict a winner with certainty?
No. Sezi shows probabilities and the data behind them — a probability reading, not a certainty. The goal is calibration: when the model says 70%, that outcome should land close to 70% of the time.